Trump -commercial policy still keeps oil prices up

Oil futures decreased with the escalation of the World Trade War, after US President Donald Trump revealed messages he sent to several countries, in which he would be valid and mandatory at the beginning of August. Brent ruol dropped 2.2% to $ 68.64 a barrel to the settlement of September, while futures for the “West Texas Intermediate” ruol dropped to settle below $ 67 a barrel. The fees that Trump announced included 50% set on Brazil, which is a unique matter as it records a commercial deficit with the United States. But Trump has hinted that the fees are due to the authorities’ dealings with former President Jayer Pulsenearo, who is being tried against the backdrop of an alleged coup attempt, following Luis Inacio Lula da Silva won the Brazilian general election for the year 2022. In his message to Brazil, Trump dropped the Brazilian authorities. ‘Opec’ increases its expectations for growth of demand on the other hand. The ‘Oil Exports’ Organization’ (OPEC) increased its expectations for the growth of oil demand by about 2.9 million barrels per day, compared to last year’s expectations, according to the annual report issued by the group. The optimistic image of the oil drawn by the report is based on several factors such as the accelerated economic growth in India, which will add an increase in demand from 8.2 million barrels per day during the period to 2050, an increase of 200 thousand barrels per day compared to the expectations of the previous report. On the contrary, the report has reduced its expectations for the growth of demand from China, as it is expected to add 1.8 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2050, compared to 2.5 million barrels per day in previous expectations. Most of the increase in global oil demand comes from the transport and aviation sector, which is expanded at an accelerated rate amid growth in its fuel needs. As far as production is concerned, the report expects oil production outside the “OPEC+” countries to increase to 58.9 million barrels per day to mid -century compared to the organization’s expectations over the past year, as it was at 57.3 million barrels per day. The largest increase in production outside the “OPEC” countries comes from the United States, then Mexico and Brazil. As for the countries of the “OPEC+” Alliance, the report raised its expectations to deliver it to 64.1 million barrels every day. The demand for oil can provide for supplies. In recent months, there have been remarkable transformations in the policy of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries “OPEC” as it has accelerated the re -power, which voluntarily reduced it to the market. In July, the “OPEC+” Alliance in August decided to raise its oil supply with 548 thousand barrels per day, outside the increases he approved during the previous three months, as part of his attempt to restore the market share, which he lost in favor of competitors during the period in which his supplies were reduced in providing the evacuation of the evacuation of the evacuation. The Minister of Energy and Infrastructure in the UAE has defended the decisions of “OPEC+”, emphasizing that the market is “healthy” and that they are a real demand, especially from the Asian countries, considering that countries that pump large investment to ensure that global energy security should be appreciated by their efforts. In an interview with “Al -Sharq”, Al -Mazrouei emphasized that the oil block follows the market on a monthly basis and accepts its decisions based on the actual indicators it considers, and pointed out that the levels of global stocks did not see an abnormal rise after the last decision. In response to the fear of a vaccination in the offer after the end of the summer season, Al -Mazroui said: “Skepticism continued from the beginning … We always say we are closest to the market, and we are what it sells … and if this group (OPEC+) does not know the market, I do not know who the market more than we know.” He said: “We meet monthly as ministers and a committee to see if the market is ready to accommodate these quantities or not … We have not yet seen any significant change in the level of shares, did not go to the storage … and the market needed this barrels,” and added that the coalition did not build its decisions on the long run, but rather to ensure that the market balance is not violated. Trump’s policy has been pushing the prices that the US Customs War has increased over the past few days, as Trump’s latest claims on previous agreements with senior commercial partners such as China and the UK have increased, the agreements that previously helped to calm investors. The market is currently facing some of the highest customs duties in the history of the United States, paving the way for a mysterious period for global growth. Meanwhile, the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea drowned two ships and killed a number of crew members. However, this escalation did not increase a risk allowance in oil prices, as investors hesitated to buy based on geopolitical developments, after energy infrastructure survived a previous confrontation between the United States and Iran.