The best has not yet come.

US banks achieved an excellent achievement this year according to almost all standards. For many of the most respected observers in the sector, the best has not yet come. Mike Mayo, an analyst at Wales Vargo & Co, says that the net interest income can rise to a record level in 2025. Jason Goldberg of Barclays BLC says the growth of the arrow’s profitability will rise by almost dozens over the next two years. This is not the only optimistic. The hedge funds bought the shares of financial companies in the third quarter, which strengthened their exposure to more than $ 340 billion, a 50% increase over just three months for it, according to the “13F” data (13F) that Bloomberg collected. Meanwhile, Market monitors expect most of the engines that fed the high bank shares to continue by more than 33% this year – to bypass the S&P 500 and “Nasdac” 100 -emerging indices – to be a favorable factor in the coming months. This includes the recovery of the activity of capital markets and loan growth. The Trump administration will support banks if expectations are fulfilled with a wave of relief from regulatory rules and tax under the following Trump administration, many say that bank shares will have a lot more space to move, even if the Federal Reserve holds interest rates for a longer period than expected. Mayo said Wall Street is at a turning point with regard to everything related to “traditional banks of income to deposits, loans, capital markets, operational leverage, arrow profit growth and the organizational burden. All these transformations occur at the same time.” Some optimism that banks will benefit from eliminating organizational restrictions – including the possibility of controlling capital rules – to the increase in share prices after the November election. But this optimism is limited to concerns about the inability to predict the actions of President -Skine Donald Trump, which could cause political and economic transformations that bank managers must handle. “We expect the year 2025 to be volatile and that the year will be divided into two halves (in terms of performance).” They see the possibility of “continued fluctuations in the short term due to the uncertainty associated with policy changes, but the possibility of a favorable decision to capital requirements may be positive in the longer term”. Companies improve their belongings of their banks, despite the possibility of volatility, banks have attracted attention in the most important areas of the market, where investors hope to take advantage of any organizational release that the Trump administration may result in. In addition to the hedge funds, which strengthened its allocations to the shares of the financial sector to 13.4% of the total in the last quarter, the family office “Duqiesne” added the “Stanley Druckenmiller” Family Bank to its portfolio, including “City Group” and the Regional Bank “Keycorp. Unlike that, George Soros’s family office has previously raised his awards to the first citizens Bancshares; ‘Cecano Management’, JP Morgan and Bank of America, added, while Iconiq Capital, a multi -family office in Silicon Valley and Thawat Company, bought a number of US banks. Last year it was not always easy, and sometimes the improvement with disappointing profits and noticeable declines coincided. In July, the shares of “Wales Vargo” fell in the largest rate in three years after the bank announced a net income of interest less than expectations, while the shares of “City Group” fell on expenses, and the shares of “JP Morgan” fell after the bank’s leading expectations could not impress the investment. By October, after the Federal Reserve began to lower interest rates, the situation was different, although interest rate discounts did not affect the profits. Goldberg wrote from ‘Barclays’ in a note according to the results: ‘The results were better than in general, and share prices moved in response.’ The financial sector is first in a recent memo about banks, says Wales Vargo analysts that the most important engine for better profits is the yield of the net interest margin to its normal levels in a long period, when interest rates are higher than zero. According to the “Wales Vargo” report, the impact of the value of the deposits will become more prominent while the interest rates remain higher. They assume that their ascension scenario that the net interest income will reach a record level in 2025, and it is estimated that interest rates of 5%, the value of the deposits will be four times what it was when the interest rates were 1%. At the same time, analysts in “Strategas” put the financial sector in their first rank in the sectors technically for both businesses with large and small capital, thanks to strong basic trends, leadership and momentum. In the absence of deterrence due to the declines, analyst Todd Sun says they tend to view the affirmative phases as an opportunity to add exposure centers for creditor when the sector is resolved at higher level, and they think it may apply to financial enterprises with the 2025 approach ‘. Skepticism about banks’ performance, but not everyone is optimistic about banks. Surianch Sharma of “Morning Star” was the only analyst to issued a ‘sale’ recommendation for the shares of “Goldman Sachs Group”, “Bank of America” ​​and “Wales Vargo”. It warns that expectations of profits are very optimistic, making shares vulnerable to any negative surprise. “The big danger signal is when the shares are priced as perfectly. So, if something bad happens, we are classifying again,” Sharma said. Most analysts agree that the success or failure of banks and financial institutions in 2025 is severely influenced by the general situation of the US economy. “If a recession takes place, all bets will lose. The sale of shares will come first and ask questions later,” says May. The realism test comes from the Federal Reserve during the meeting in mid -December, when officials reduced their expectations for reducing interest rates in 2025. Bank shares dropped significantly, the profits they achieved almost after the election, and the “KBW Bank Index” index fell by 4.3% while the regional index fell 5.3%. The banks are a reflection of the economy, most market monitors, such as Mark Lucheni, the investment strategy in ‘Janney Scott’, see the general decline in the market that was an ’emotional response’ and ‘exaggerated’. While banks are often seen as a reflection of the economy, their movements tend to exaggerate. Goldberg of Barclays notes that although the natural emotions are due to the influence on the trade, any new policy will take time until its effect will be determined. Although the results of the business in January are expected to include an increase in revenue and operating leverage, strong shares of shares and stable credit quality, it indicates that favorable bank policies will only be applied after Trump’s inauguration at the end of January. Goldberg said: “The interest of investors has certainly recovered after the election, but there is some frequency because of the uncertainty about the timing and policy of the administration,” Goldberg said. At the same time, Mayo remains optimistic and expects a radical transformation in the way investors look at their possession in banks. According to May, the flexible, short -term correlation approach that investors tend to adopt bank shares will continue by the end of the year. “But clarity and confidence in a series of coming years, which will be higher profits, is likely to hold more investors to the bank shares and keep it many more years.”