Israeli strikes Shake Foundation or Iran's theocratic rule

Copyright © HT Digital Streams Limit all rights reserved. Iran’s highest leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. (AFP) Summary of the leaders of Iran found themselves domestically in an existential struggle to protect almost half a century of power. Iran’s leaders involved in an existential struggle to protect almost half a century of rule, as Israel pounds the military, the government and the population. The US and Israel have made it clear that even Iran’s highest leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, could be a target. “We know exactly where the so -called ‘supreme leader’ is hiding,” President Trump posted on social media. “He’s an easy target, but is safe there – we’re not going to take him out (kill!), At least not for now.” Israel’s attacks showed how thoroughly its intelligence agency, Mossad, Iran entered. Israel killed the leading military commanders and nuclear scientists of the region, bombed oil energy infrastructure and the state broadcaster of Iran and tens of thousands who fled Tehran. “What has done over the past four days is to create a real split in the social contract that has existed at least over the past two decades,” says Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran’s expert at the European Foreign Relations Council. That contract, between the regime and its people, is “anchored about this promise of security of the state in exchange for serious limited political, social and increasingly economic rights.” Iran has had to replace at least six top military commanders killed by Israel since Friday. The powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which oversees the country’s safety, went into the damage control mode. Following intelligence failures that Israel could easily kill military commanders and scientists in their homes, the revolutionary guard went on a propaganda offensive. State media outlets have published a story to a story about the IRGC finding cells working for Mossad, often without providing evidence. The IRGC said on Wednesday that several Israeli “agents and mercenaries” were arrested in Central Yan. This urged residents to be “vigilant about the movements of neighbors they recently established in the area.” An Israeli military official said these reports are false and part of the wrong information that the Iranians spread “in attempts to create the incidence of success.” The Israeli Prime Minister’s office did not immediately respond to requests for comment. “The political, military, security institution is trying to regain control of the narrative and that social contract to say that we can protect you,” Geranmayeh said. “It’s a real challenge to recover. The social contract is now the biggest challenge for them intern. ‘ In a television message on Wednesday, Khamenei promised to resist Israel and revealed Trump’s “imminent and vulgar” remarks, saying that they “have no influence on the Iranian people’s thoughts or actions.” “The United States need to know that our people will not surrender, and that any military intervention by them will lead to irreparable consequences,” Khamenei said. Theocracy was already under pressure before the war broke out. Israel’s army struck its Allied militia, the Hezbollah of Lebanon and the Hamas of Gaza. Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, a close ally of Tehran, was overthrown in December. Israel killed a Top Hamas leader while visiting Tehran last year and several Iranian commanders in the region. Meanwhile, ordinary Iranians have deviated against economic sanctions. Prior to Friday’s strikes, Iran was under pressure to end an agreement to end US sanctions in exchange for its nuclear programs. The value of the country’s currency has fallen since November. And Iran’s gross domestic product has dropped by 45% since 2012. Before the war, protests became more frequent in response to the economic tension. Nurses and telecommunications have protested arguments. Retired teachers showed before Parliament on delays in welfare payments. Shoemakers and other traders in the most important Bazaar of Tehran staged a rare strike in December about high inflation. Israel’s strikes in recent days have dramatically strengthened the pressure. The value of the Iranian currency lost 13%. Israel’s strikes on natural gas plants along the Persian Gulf and an oil pot and refinery in Tehran can worsen an energy crisis. It forced schools, cement factories and pharmaceutical plants to end. “The Islamic Republic essentially loses control of what is going on in Iran, at least the symbolic level,” says Rasmus Christian Elling, associate professor of Iranian studies at the University of Copenhagen. ‘The open question is whether there are enough people who are still actively participating in meeting these challenges and actually doing their job. In many ways, the Islamic Republic is now helpless. ‘ Some dissident groups based in the US and Europe have supported Israel’s strikes and called on regime change, while other Iranian activists have called on the regime to give up uranium enrichment. But some groups expressed nationalist feelings and exposed Israel’s attacks. To be sure, there have been no visible signs of division in Iran so far. The government has limited and warned access to the Internet against the publication of social media posts supported as Israel. Five people were arrested in the central city of Yazd on Sunday because he was “trying to disturb public opinion” by sending posts online, according to the semi -official news agency ISNA. Besides, most Iranians are too busy at the moment to escape Israel’s air strikes, analysts said. “It should be a strong indication of President Trump that if you bomb a nation from outside, it will be very difficult for them to organize on the inside for a political opposition or a transition,” Geranmayeh said. Iran’s reform president Masoud Pezeshkian is also weakened. His policy of opening to the West to relieve sanctions failed. This gives Iran’s hard liners the upper hand, although they are now in jeopardy because they did not protect Iran from Israel’s strikes. “The system is under tremendous tension, as no reform or power works,” says Mostafa Pakzad, chairman of Pakzad Consulting, who advises foreign companies about Iranian geopolitics and is currently not in the country. “The Israeli strikes on June 13 and the death of IRGC leaders have crushed the illusion of strategic control. With no reform credibility and declining compulsive growth, the regime loses both its traditional bones.” Some Iranian officials are concerned that the country could simply break ethnic lines, says Iranian and Arab diplomats. Iran is populated with the Arabic, Azeri and Kurdish minorities in the West and Baluch in the east, all of which have separatist aspirations. In some ways, decisions made by Khamenei returned to haunt him. The architect behind Iran’s military expansion in the Middle East underestimated his senior advisers Israel’s desire to confront them. Already in February, Khamenei was made aware of a plan for massive Israeli air strikes, but when Israel was attacked last week, he and his advisers were caught off guard. Khamenei’s death would cause more uncertainty in Iran. Death in a helicopter accident last year of his alleged successor, Ebrahim Raisi, left theocracy with no transparent plans for succession, although Khamenei’s son is considered a contender. One scenario is that Khamenei’s death would lead to military rule in Iran led by hard liners who prefer a nuclear weapon to ward off Israel. “If Khamenei dies in the middle of this war for some reason, the revolutionary guard and all the regular army would take the situation and take control of the situation,” says Elling. “There is no clear religious leader in the corridors who will have popular support and also religious legitimacy.” Write to Sudarsan Raghavan at Sudarsan.raghavan@wsj.com and Benoit Faucon on benoit.faucon@wsj.com Catch all the business news, market news, news reports and latest news updates on live currency. Download the Mint News app to get daily market updates. More Topics #israel #News Read Next Story