Trump is everywhere except in the economic data

Copyright © HT Digital Streams Limit all rights reserved. Greg IP, The Wall Street Journal 5 min Read April 21, 2025, 10:27 p.m., IST President Trump’s deportations, rates, federal discharge and funding suspensions yielded uninterrupted headlines. (Beeld: AP) Summary fear that rates, expenses and deportations would lead to recession, and inflation still has to appear in the numbers. Imagine not following the news or social media and watched the world only through economic data. You couldn’t guess that the White House changed hands in January. President Trump’s deportations, rates, federal dismissal and suspensions for funding have yielded uninterrupted headings and weakened confidence, but still left surprisingly little trace to the economy. Rent, spending and inflation look a lot like under Joe Biden. The disconnection is deeply disorienting. United Airlines, which calls the economic environment “impossible to predict”, has issued two prospects for earnings over the past week: one with a recession, and one without it. Economists questioned by the Wall Street Journal think that the rent will delay this year sharply and that inflation will take up. So far, there is little evidence of one of the two. Work growth has averaged 173,000 averaged over the past two months, almost the same as the previous six months. The unemployment rate was on average 4.2%, a tithe of a point higher than the previous six months. Both overall inflation and the preferred partner of the Federal Reserve of underlying price pressure had a tenth of a less point on average. Elon Musk once said that it could reduce federal spending at 10% of federal employees – about 240,000. Through February and March, the federal employment excludes the post office just 10,100. Claims for unemployment insurance by former federal employees rose at the end of February and early March, but recently only average a few hundred more a week than a year before on average. A federal worker who has lost her job gets help to transport her belongings from the Mary E. Switzer Memorial Building in Washington, DC, despite a border outage and deportation push, the number of foreign-born workers has grown in recent months, although the data, based on a monthly sample of the Department of Labor, may not be fully reliable. Trump’s rates seem to have led to higher wholesale prices of steel, aluminum and related products. But not much happens at the consumer level. The gross domestic product, after growing 2.5% over 2024, is likely to be in the first quarter or even contract. But it seems to reflect unusual import behavior and the effect of weather on consumption. Behind the disconnection, it should make it all wonder: Trump really changes the economy just like us – and he – think? One obvious reason for the disconnection between the headings and the data is time delay. Trump’s first rates, on Canada, Mexico and China, came into effect on March 4; Rates on steel and aluminum followed on March 12. Its much larger 10% universal rate and the 145% rate on China came into effect in early April. High reciprocal rates on major trading partners have been interrupted. Rates on Autos came into effect in early April and will come into effect next month. Those rates will only arrive before the data was released in April in May. High reciprocal rates on major trading partners have been interrupted. And since importers have risen before the rates, it may take months for many new rates to pass on to the final consumer. The foreign -born workforce may continue to swell with migrants who occurred months ago, and federal employees who have accepted deferred resignation can remain on the payroll until September. Another explanation is that the US economy is enormous. It is subject to countless influences, and actions by the president, even one as disruptive as Trump, is not necessarily dominant. For example, although shares were sold in response to Trump’s tariff plans, they may have fallen anyway, after historically overvaluing the year. Much of last year’s rally reflects enthusiasm about artificial intelligence. Last Wednesday’s sale, which was not caused by rates, but through new Trump restrictions on the sales of AI chips to China built on steps that prayed, could reflect expectations to the earth. Feedback mechanisms eventually cause the president’s policy of feedback mechanisms that often compensate the initial impulse. Some of the feedback is economical. For example, Trump’s tariff threats have darkened the prospects for global growth. It beat global oil prices, just like a decision by the organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase production – after which Trump insisted. Airline’s aircraft have fallen over the past two months in light of the mitigation of demand, which may reflect the Doge restrictions on federal employees and foreigners uneasily about the US border control policy. Petrol and aircraft contributed to a surprising decline in the seasonally adjusted consumer prices in March from February. Some of the feedback is behavior. Trump promised the biggest deportation in history, but his daily removal through March actually ran under fiscal 2024 levels, when Biden was president, according to the non -part -way transactional records access clearinghouse. There may be fewer people to deport, as illegal border crossings have dropped under Trump and vulnerable migrants in the country are trying harder to avoid the authorities. President Trump has announced tariff releases for products such as smartphones. To prevent raising prices due to rates, some businesses have suspended certain products, or have been built by stock ahead of time. In the end, there is political feedback. As a president acting, opponents draw every available lever to resist. Some of these levers don’t work now: Trump has total control over Republicans and thus Congress, while Democrats are not in evil. His exercise of presidential power has also blown through norms from the past – and possibly legal limits. But courts step in and remain from his deportation efforts and federal dismissal. Rates, Trump’s most economically disruptive initiative, have so far no opposition to courts or the congress. But they have scared investors and businesses that make their views known. And it seems that the White House is listening, which Trump asked to interrupt many rates, announce exemptions for products such as smartphones and start negotiations with trading partners. That step -back, in turn, is likely to change behavior: Companies can now hesitate to change or obtain prices if they think rates will eventually not rise as much. Meanwhile, other countries will not retaliate while negotiations seem promising. So Trump has not left much of the impression on the economy. Don’t assume it will take. Trump changes planning, but not his ultimate goals. Write to Greg IP at Greg.ip@wsj.com, catch all the business news, market news, news reports and latest news updates on live currency. Download the Mint News app to get daily market updates. More Topics #Donald Trump Mint Specials