Iocl q4 results preview: weaker margins, crude oil volatility can use profitability | Einsmark news

IOCL Q4 Preview: Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL), the state-run energy major, will be announced on Wednesday, April 30, its earnings in the fourth quarter. Analysts expect a subdued performance, largely due to poorer marketing margins, under recycling in LPG, and pressure on the refinement of the savings. Domestic brokers Nuvama Institutional Shares expect the EBITDA of IOCL year-on-year 42% to fall, although it can show a successive 69% growth, which is slightly supported by seasonal improvements. The decline is mainly attributed to the performance of the segments of the refining of segments, as benchmark Singapore Gross Refining Margins (GRMS) dropped 58% yoy amid the mitigation of global product crings. It is estimated that the throughput of the refinement contracted with 2% yoy and 1% qoq. While retail fuel margins are growing strongly on a year-on-year basis, their quarter-to-quarter has dropped due to the volatility of the price and a depreciation rupee, according to the broker. Nuvama estimates diesel -retail margins at £ 6/liter (+58% yoy, -29% qoq) and petrol margins at £ 10/liter (+40% yoy, -21% qoq). Domestic retail sales are expected to rise by 4% years in the March quarter. The petrochemical segment is also expected to remain weak in the midst of subdued and narrow distributions. JA Securities expects IOCL’s core/reported GRM at $ 5.3/$ 5.7 a barrel with the refinement and marketing of 18.2 and 25.3 million tonnes respectively. The broker pins mixed gross marketing margins at £ 4.4/liter and expected the core -integrated ebitda margin to $ 2.4 a barrel, down $ 2.3 yoy and $ 2.8 qoq. ICICI Securities said the Q4FY25 performance of OMCs is likely to be hit by weaker marketing margins and sub-restoration in LPG. During the quarter, SG GRMS dropped by USD 1.7/BBL QOQ. Marketing margins dropped £ 3.5 and £ 2.5 per liter of QOQ in petrol/diesel to £ 8.5 and £ 5.5 per liter, driving the weakness in earnings. In general, while retail volumes and some margin recovery support, increased input costs and global softness in refinement can drag profitability, according to analysts. The share price trend of Indian Oil Corporation’s share price extended its finish line until the second consecutive month in April, with a further 6.26% so far, after a 12.51% increase in March. This rally comes after a sustained decline between October 2024 and February 2025, during which the share lost 37.22% of its value. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. This does not represent the views of coin. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making investment decisions. First published: 29 Apr 2025, 05:21 pm Ist