Global uncertainty is likely to delay a complete return to normality: Mirae Cio

Copyright © HT Digital Streams Limit all rights reserved. Markets Dipti Sharma 4 min Read 13 Apr 2025, 11:13 am Ist Neelesh Surana, Cio at Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India). Summary In an interview with Mint, Neelesh Surana also said that India’s modest exposure to the US and its consumer -guided economy offers some ease. Neelesh Surana, investment officer at Mirae Asset Investment Managers (India), said the domestic economy was improving, especially of the rural revival and supportive fiscal and financial measures. However, global uncertainty is likely to delay a complete return to normality, he added. “A meaningful recovery depends on earnings growth, and we expect earnings to gradually improve over the next few quarters,” Surana said. In an interview with Mint, he also said new investors could look at hybrid funds to execute volatility while gaining exposure to stocks, adding that to stay focused on quality, by diversifying assets and not panicking during the fluctuations of the market is most important. Here are some edited excerpts from the interview. What is your current reading on the markets? Have we seen the worst of it, or is there more pain or a phase of consolidation on the maps? The recent correction has been caused by tariff developments, but it is essential to consider the broader context. Valuations rose before earnings during the strong market period from March 2023 to September 2024. This, together with a cyclical slowdown in the Indian economy and sold by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and promoters, led to the correction, which was further influenced by the continuous tariff reviews. Also read: Mayhem for that shares such as FIIs have taken off. What lies ahead? As far as the rates are concerned, India’s modest exposure to the US (2% of GDP) and the resilient, consumabled economy are some ease. There is a strong possibility that India in a few sectors acquires market share from China, giving Indian exports a relative benefit. In general, we expect the markets to consolidate a deeper correction rather than experience a deeper correction, as valuations are now about 17 times reasonable, the FY27 earnings. How do you have to do with the chaos in the market? Has the tariff -led pessimism caused any changes in your approach to picking stock or exit strategy? Volatile markets test our portfolio risk framework, and we focus on distinguishing between temporary losses and permanent capital. We adhere to our process and emphasize diversification, quality filters and discipline. We have not changed our overall strategy, and continue to focus on resilient quality enterprises that can navigate uncertainty while delivering earnings in the medium term. When do you see clarity returning to the markets, and what potential catalysts can recover from here? We see improvements in the domestic economy, especially from the revival of rural and supportive fiscal and financial measures. However, global uncertainty is likely to delay a complete return to normality. A meaningful recovery depends on earnings growth, and we expect earnings to gradually improve over the next few quarters. Investors should focus on underlying fundamentals rather than in short term noise. Which sectors are likely to lead the charge when the recovery kicks in? We remain constructive on BFSI, rural focused consumer discretionary, and choose exporters. India will benefit from the China+1 theme, and we prefer sectors such as pharmaceutical and specialty chemicals, where there is a strong case for competitiveness. Also read: Rupee is unshaked in the midst of the trade war in the US China. India can even earn from it. Consumer discretionary, especially in the rural mass market, remains promising, with the potential for the ambitious consumption to take up as rural income rises, relieving interest rate and inflation. What about industrial and defense shares? Although defense valuations seem fair, we find that industrial capital goods are still somewhat expensive. This space is not high in our current priorities. We are more focused on areas where valuations are in line with the long-term earnings potential and where recent corrections have created better access points. Mirae is quite large in passive investment, especially in the global stockmal with ETFs. How do you see that markets like the US and other emerging economies are playing out? We maintain a balanced of active and passive strategies. Our global ETFs offer unique exposure to innovation-driven businesses, but all international funds currently have regulatory caps. Although international exposure is valuable, it is not for everyone and should be accompanied by an understanding of macro trends and currency factors for effective portfolio positioning. With the latest tariff movements hurrying global trade, how can India stand up against its rising markets peers, and can it shift the needle on foreign inflow in its favor? India looks better positioned than many other countries, especially China, facing stricter winds from US rates. India’s share in global supply chains is being aided by schemes such as PLI (production-linked incentives). Also read: TCS commentary offers some optimism, but the street does not buy it for example; Apple’s exports from India have risen from $ 3 billion to around $ 20 billion over the past four years and positioned India as an important beneficiary of global re -alignment. How should investors navigate the broader market, especially if it is a mixture of solid bets and foaming plays? The recent correction has hampered foaming valuations, but market navigation still requires discipline. Our stock selection approach has three pillars: business quality, management and reasonable valuations. It is important to avoid fashions and focus on steady, compound returns. It’s about sticking to businesses that can withstand the current global windwind and still deliver the best growth in class in their sectors. While it is positive for stocks, one must be moderate for three reasons for three reasons: (a) interest rates are low, (b) valuations, although reasonable, are not exceptionally cheap, and (c) Most companies have a limited space to expand margins due to increasing competition and/or disruption in many segments. What key factors should investors watch? The two key market managers are macro stability and earnings growth. Investors should remain disciplined with the allocation of assets and avoid responding to short -term noise. New investors may consider hybrid funds to reduce volatility while gaining exposure to stocks. If you are focused on quality, maintaining diversification through asset allocation and the avoidance of panic during volatile phases will remain essential. The ability to think long-term-even in the midst of short-term noise-is an important lead in investment. Catch all the business news, market news, news reports and latest news updates on Live Mint. Download the Mint News app to get daily market updates. More Topics #Markets Premium Mint Specials