Expectations of the increase in the price of gold are threatened. Observers: It's time to be careful

The high price of gold performed better than the categories of other assets this month, to the extent that some compared it to the pace of “Benquin”, and this increase came amid the trade war led by US President Donald Trump and the global economic system, which urged investors to search for secure assets. However, the movements of the option contracts have currently urged a number of market monitors to indicate that the time is careful. With the increase in the price of gold to a record level last week, options trading in the SPDR Gold shares ETF Fund, 1.3 million contracts, represented an unprecedented level. Meanwhile, the cost of hedging since August has stabilized from the low prices in the fund near the lowest level, while the rate of implicit fluctuation has increased, which is an unusual pattern. Tanvir Sando, chief strategic analyst at Global Derivative Contracks at Bloomberg Intelligence, said: “Gold and” Bojiq “showed dynamics of high immediate prices and fluctuations that saw the shares of (seven large) companies. Implicit volatility led to the level of different implementation rates that became more balanced. Option contracts for the precious metal reduce to the lowest level in over a year, according to the latest data issued by the Justice Commodity Trading Committee. The period of reluctance to risk recently, caused by customs duties and the idea that ‘US exceptional’ is about to end, has contributed this month to the vast superiority of gold in other asset categories, including US treasury bonds and stocks. Regarding the strategic analysts at Barclays Veron, the high price of gold is the basic data, and this indicated in a memorandum issued last week that the monthly gold purchase range is not extraordinary compared to the long -term direction of the central banks to buy the original. Stefano Pascal of “Barclays” indicated that the outbreak of the precious metal in performance also led to a large wave of speculation, as the demand for purchase contracts in the Gold Fund significantly spread, after the “Liberation Day” announced by Trump, which led to the reflection of the departure. Strategic analysts pointed out that this reflection, in addition to reducing hedge funds, investment centers and the decline in precious metal prices, are all factors that at least ask for caution in the short term. Is there an exaggeration in the price of gold? Pascal added in an interview: “We expect gold prices to fall”, and that there is an ‘imbalance’ in the price of the commodity compared to the ‘most important engines’ proposed in the US dollar and real interest rates, and that ‘technical factors begin to exaggerate.’ Garrett de Simon, the most important quantum analyst at ‘Option statistics’, sees similarities between gold and ‘bitcoin’. From his point of view, the two origin can see more height, as long as the implicit volatility and deviation between the long -term historical scope of each persists. He added: “From the perspective of the options contract market, the expectations of rise and decline are very close.” Although the “Barclays” index explains the continued optimism to gold prices, strategic analysts recommend selling purchase contracts for the month of June with the aim of buying sales contracts to reflect the risks without any costs. Pascal concluded: “It is clear that the trend trading is mainly, and therefore the price of gold must fall to achieve the useful trade.”