Aramco's shares challenge gravity: Does the Saudi oil prepare for a new rise?

In a market in which investors are tense due to oil prices, Saudi Aramco Arrow becomes a striking paradox. While trading on a profitable context, clearly less than its historical level, as the company was inserted into the financial market at the end of 2019, the share rewrites its investment narrative as one of the most interesting assets in the region. In a trade session on Sunday, the share was seen that the incidence of the appearance of oil prices was a decrease, but some analysts saw a rare occasion. Majed Al -khaldi, the financial analyst in the newspaper “Al -iqtisadiah”, indicated in an interview with the “Morning East” program that the decline “was of course”, but he soon made it clear that these levels could in fact be attractive to those who understand the rules of the game. The current profitability of Aramco stocks is repeated 15 times, and it is not only less than the average market, but also lower than the average share since the insert of 20.7 times. With a critical yield still one of the highest in the region, the arrow of the arrow is for those looking for a balance between stability and growth, according to Al -Haddi. Quick refusal … Signals cannot be ignored in the Monday session, the stock started with 1.3%, but after just minutes it changed its direction to jump by 2.4% to 25.35 Riyals. This movement did not succeed, as the share contributed to more than five profits of the Saudi Market Index, which ascended at the end of the trading of 1% and more than 100 points, which opened the door to the question: Was it just a technical correction? Or is there anyone who bets on the future of Aramco? Warning against emerging pressure, but in the background, a cautious tone becomes frequent in expert analyzes. According to the analysis of Will Harris and Saleh Yilz of “Bloomberg Intelligence”, the continued drop in oil prices could lower the net income of Aramco by more than $ 30 billion in 2025, unless a noticeable recovery was achieved in prices. This warning coincided with the Arrow who registered 5% yesterday, in its worst daily performance since March 2020. The two analysts notes that the accelerated increase in OPEC+production, in collaboration with the slowdown in world demand, is weakening Aramco’s ability to benefit from any slight improvement in production. According to their estimates, the biggest challenge that poor cash flow has undertaken the company’s ability to maintain its investment strategy, including potential integration transactions in the Asian refining sector. Political geography, on the other hand, comes on the other hand, and Riad Al -Nazzal, an expert in energy issues, believes that geopolitical risks can suddenly draw the market expectancy card. He points out that “the repeated US threats of Iran, the military escalation against the Houthi’s, in addition to the White House’s indication of the screws on the Russian oil sector, put the market in a fragile position, at any moment a new rise in oil prices can attract.” In his speech to Al -Sharq, Al -nazal adds that such factors often move unexpectedly, which is the share of Aramco, despite pressure, a defensive option for investors looking for a smart hedging in a volatile world environment. Behind the numbers … A deeper narrative away from the indicators and numbers, the market needs to know if the arrow refers to hidden confidence in Aramco’s ability to resist and expand, even in an economic environment full of challenges. As the company focuses on the transformation of energy and diversifying the sources of income, interest will increase to know if this price movement is a prelude to a new chapter in the story of one of the largest oil giant in the world; But with justification, as Bloomberg analysts indicate the pressure of financial structure, market prices and geopolitical vigilance as a warning.