The large increase in bonds without the investment grade in emerging markets has created the appetite of investors over two of the daring bets, the dollar effects of Venezuela and Lebanon. Both countries suffer from suffocating economic crises, including migration crisbs and excessive inflation. They also stumble in paying debt, and the recovery of this crisis is expected to last years. However, for investors looking for profit opportunities, similar to a lottery ticket, these bonds are very attractive because of their cheap prices in an indisputable way. “If the prices of bonds are very low, people buy it because they consider them a promising option. There are other countries that have restructured their debt like Argentina that is better now, so investors dare to dare:” The state bonds with high returns have done over the past year in the years 2023 and 2024, as Argentina Bonds have risen more than 100% over the past year. With investors’ bet on the dallen of these profits amid the challenges of high -risk assets, they have begun to go the cheapest sovereign ties in the world. The value of Lebanon’s effects has multiplied over the past three months, while JPMorgan has described Securities Venezuela’s effects as ‘the strongest bet of 2025’. Investment in these bonds is a long -term betting depends on the possibility of political changes, supported by expectations over US President Donald Trump’s policy towards Venezuela, which could pave the way for a possible restructuring of troubled debt. Carl Ross, a sovereign debt analyst at GMO (GMO), who uses a long -term approach in both countries, believes that “bond prices are very low, and can achieve good returns in medium to long term.” He added: “There are also reasons for pessimism, but for the past two weeks signs of optimism have emerged.” The situation in Lebanon advanced a positive development this month with the election of US military commander Joseph Aoun as the first president of the country in more than two years. A group of mortgagees have also expressed the willingness to discuss the $ 30 billion bond restructuring since 2020. Also read: Lebanon’s effects enter the Resolution Week after registering the strongest increase in emerging markets. This development strengthened the high prices of Lebanese effects for several months, supported by reports on the decline of the Hezbollah group supported by Iran because of the Israeli attacks. The effects owed in 2035 rose from about 6 cents on the dollar to about 17 cents, according to guidelines collected by “Bloomberg”. Danke Bank, Pictet Management and Bank of America, expect the price of bonds to rise to at least 20 cents, with the possibility of achieving more in the event of difficult reforms. In the case of restructuring, Zamba is estimated according to the value of the Lebanese bonds on a little over 30 cents. Bruno Genari, the KNG Securities LLP, expected his part to “do the new authorities everything to avoid any conflict with Israel or Hezbollah, which puts a minimum assessments at about 13 cents per dollar.” An inconsistent future in Venezuela, in return, looks more mysterious in Venezuela, especially after President Nicholas Maduro managed to expand his reign for a six years of six years, despite the presence of strong evidence of his loss to the presidential election in July. US sanctions place strict restrictions that prevent Venezuela from issuing new effects or negotiating with bondholders over her troubled $ 60 billion debt and the benefits that did not pay. These political impasse reduces the possibility of the United States to reduce any of these restrictions and postpone the possibility of debt negotiation. Also read: Venezuela sets out the 60 billion dollars deadline, but investors are monitoring any references to the united States and Venezuela recommunications to Trump’s inauguration. Richard Greenil, Trump’s Gone for Private Tasks, announced on Monday that he had talks with Venezuelan officials. Venezuelan effects in general rose on Thursday, as the effects owed in 2027 achieved profits of about one cent to exceed 17 cents on the dollar, which is the highest level since August, according to guidelines collected by “Bloomberg”. The hope of US policy against Venezuela increases expectations about the form of US policy against Venezuela during the Trump, according to Francesco Marani, head of trade at Spanish investment company “Auriga Global Investors SV SA”. Investors are divided on whether Trump will use a strict approach or choose to negotiate with Maduro to alleviate the immigration crisis in Venezuela. “Although Trump has appointed people who criticize the Maduro administration, he is the possibility that he is bored of stagnation and has an agreement,” said Ajata Medrata, president of the Greylock Capital Management LLC and a member of the Venezuela Calculation Committee that is part of the country’s fault. He added: “Trump won the election because of the America First program, which focuses on reducing energy and illegal immigration, not to improve democracy.” The height in Lebanese tires makes its Venezuelan counterpart look relatively cheaper. In a memorandum on January 10, GB Morgan dealers indicated that Venezuelan effects at ‘very attractive levels’, with the expectation of restructuring as a basic scenario, but warned that the process would be long and complicated, limiting high prices. Also read: Investors are at risk of buying the cheap Lebanon effects amid the war, and despite the possession of Venezuela, the largest oil reserves in the world, but its tires are the lowest price in the “JP Morgan Emerging Markets Index”, according to Garid Lu, the wallet manager at William Blair in New York. He explained that these effects can “achieve well if positive surprises occur.”
A great demand for the ties of Lebanon and Venezuela, a bet to increase his profits
