How Russia's call to peace conversations became a diplomatic defeat to Putin

Copyright © HT Digital Streams Limit all rights reserved. BOJAN PANCEVSK, Alan Cullison, The Wall Street Journal 5 min read May 17, 2025, 12:30 PST Pool Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and German Chancellor Friedrich Tirana, Albania, on Friday. (AP/PTI) (AP) Summary Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Poland exceeded the Kremlin by persuading the Zelensky of Ukraine to accept Trump’s shooting question. Russia’s leader barked. Peace in Ukraine remains just as elusive as when Russian tanks flocked the borders for the first time more than three years ago. This week’s talks in Istanbul – talking what Vladimir Putin himself suggested – shows that he is not ready to do a deal yet. They can also show President Trump that the Russian leader is really the obstacle to peace that the Ukrainians and their European supports claim to be. All involved parties – Yekraine, Europe and Russia – performed their own extensive performances in Turkey to influence the US president. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky made a performance that he was prepared to meet with his Russian counterpart and talk to senior Western officials. European leaders helped Zelensky calibrate his approach after his clearance with Trump and Vice President JD Vance in the White House earlier this year. Putin’s Gambit largely meant not to show up at all, but the task of dealing with the first direct peace talks with Ukraine in three years to some relatively minor officials after suggesting the discussions himself. Their refusal to consider Trump’s proposal for a 30-day frucation places the case effectively on ice. Putin indicated that his demands had not changed since the beginning of the war. These claims included territorial concessions by Kyiv, a radically reduced Ukrainian army, and promised that Ukraine would never join NATO and that no NATO troops would be stationed in Ukraine. Moscow says a ceasefire will only serve Kyiv’s interest by giving the armed forces of Ukraine time to re -enter and regain. It argued that any Kyiv peace agreement will only get worse over time as Russian forces are progressing deeper into Ukraine. Now Ukrainian and Western intelligence agencies report that Russia collects troops in eastern Ukraine in preparation for a renewed offensive, in an apparent attempt to grab more territory before committing to serious negotiations. Through a low-level delegation, identical to the one he sent to Turkey in 2022, Putin noted that he intends to postpone a position that is likely to find Ukraine unacceptable, says Thomas Graham, a prominent scholar at the foreign relations Council. Graham noted that Russia’s army had set setbacks in his invasion of his invasion early in the war, but not yet the catastrophic reversal of later that year that damaged his reputation as a land power. Putin’s hard line strategy is risking the annoying Trump, who has been annoyed with Putin for his indifference lately, and which has come at home under increasing pressure to sharpen the sanctions against Russia. European leaders have also experienced an opportunity to eventually persuade an indignant Trump to do more to support his arms question. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Thursday night that no one could say that Europe had not put enough effort to end the war. Russia sent junior representatives to the Peace Summit in Istanbul. “We will now try everything to empower Ukraine to defend himself against the Russian attack, and Putin will eventually understand that he can’t go on that way,” the Conservative German leader said. The meeting of Friday between the Ukrainian and Russian parties in Istanbul was the culmination of a carefully enacted diplomatic play by the leaders of France, Germany, Britain and Poland. After Zelensky’s face with Trump in the White House, they advised him to accept Trump’s claims unconditionally, including the call for a ceasefire, several European officials said. The four leaders had several calls with Zelensky before visiting him in Kyiv last week, where they coached him on how to handle Trump’s unpredictable approach to the broker of a peace agreement. The group spontaneously called Trump on his cellphone to inform him that Zelensky had fully accepted his ceasefire proposals. They then issued an ultimatum to Putin to accept a ceasefire or face sanctions against Russia’s important oil and gas exports. European diplomats say their newfound determination was made possible by the guard change in Germany, where Merz is now willing to accept stricter sanctions against Moscow. Putin proposed a Peace Summit in Istanbul-after which he refused to attend, and instead of sending the junior representatives, without a broad mandate to negotiate. The EU initiative, designed according to European officials to convince Trump that Putin refuses his mediation, is a major coup for both Zelensky and his European counterparts, who have long struggled to refute Trump’s criticism that they are not doing enough to end the biggest country war in Europe since World War II. “It allowed Europe to eventually become the Party of Peace,” says Ivan Krastev, a fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna who has met the Russian president several times. The onus is now on Putin to explain to Trump why he refuses his initiative for a ceasefire, despite the offer of Zelensky and his European supporters, as well as leaders of nations such as Turkey and Brazil, Krestev said. “From the beginning, it has the aspects of a circus,” says Graham of the Foreign Relations Council. “It was a show for one individual, and at the end of it is all the question, who believes Trump delivered the better performance?” Trump, who was on a series of state visits in the broader region, made some cryptic remarks about the possibility of joining the discussions in Istanbul until it became clear that Putin would not be there. Putin’s insistence on being represented only by junior assistants in Istanbul has excluded any possibility for a serious negotiation or commitment to a ceasefire, which makes him look respectful to Trump, said Sinan Ulgen, director of Istanbul-based thinking tank Edam. Foreign Minister Marco Rubio complained about the relative junior Russian delegation, saying that only a meeting between Trump and Putin could reach a breakthrough. Zelensky utilized most of the situation and told reporters before the Istanbul talk that “Trump should believe that Putin actually lies.” The EU, meanwhile, has prepared to add pressure to Moscow. It is now setting up new sanctions, including a ban on Nord Stream 2, an important natural gas pipeline connecting Russia to Germany. The pipeline was completed at the end of 2021, but never came online due to Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Part of it was inflated in 2022 by a team of Ukrainian commandos and civil divers. Indeed, the European maneuvering this week has partly designed to cut the pressure on the US to join them to tighten the sanctions on Russia, says John Herbst, a retired US diplomat who is now a senior director at the Atlantic Council in Washington. The question remains whether the US president is prepared to carry out his power to put his Russian counterpart, among other things, pressure to move to peace – especially whether he will close the economic lifeline of Russia: his energy exports. To do this, it must become clear to Trump that there is no will in Moscow, “Ulgen said. “It’s not clear to me that Trump has internalized it.” Write to Bojan Pancevski on Bojan.pancevski@wsj.com and Alan Cullison at Alan.cullison@wsj.com, catch all the politics news and updates on live currency. Download the Mint News app to get daily market updates and live business news. More Topics #ukraine War Mint Specials