Analyst: America's economy will not recover soon and the retirement will last years

A strategy states in its expectations of the timing of the US extraordinary decline that the exit of global US investors will continue for years as President Donald Trump continues with his commercial policy. Alan Pocobza, the head of assets at the Societe General Bank, was a grief over the rise of US assets for a year to September 2024 when he warned against cracks and repeated the warning in February and advised investors to reduce their exposure to US shares and the dollar. Since then, the S&B 500 has fallen by 15%, while the dollar index has fallen by about 9%. The ongoing exit from American Origins said Bokopza in an interview in Paris: “Last September our clients told us that the judgments in the United States are alarming and that the US election can open the door for less optimistic scenario.” He added: “The new administration in Washington has generally created a very high level of uncertainty, and this great capital rotation has just begun and can continue for years.” The US financial dominance is under pressure with the loss of the dollar and treasury bonds, and US stocks have left in performance compared to the global markets this year amid the fear of the damage to US trade policy and customs duties of economic growth and improve it for inflation. Bokopza added that the United States was the only place where investors could find growth, and the evaluations of the stock markets were perfect, with a major focus on technology stocks, but the companies are now suffering from customs duties. The dollar is exaggerated, Bokobza has added that the dollar has been exaggerated for some time and that it can fall for a longer period if uncertainty continues with commercial policies. He continued: “In periods of avoiding risks over the past twenty to thirty years, the dollar has risen as a safe haven. But I haven’t seen it this time.” “Due to the ongoing increase in risk allowance on all US origin, the US exception has reached the end.” Since the beginning of the year, the S&B 500 has approached the falling market levels – that is, it has dropped by 20% of the summit – before it was first restored, partly after Trump announced the suspension of the application of penalty duties, with the exception of Chinese products. The markets have welcomed additional exemptions on electronics and semi -conductors, but chips on chips to China have lowered more morale in technology shares. The rise of gold amid the fear of the dismissal of Powell, Pocobza also sees no support from monetary policy, as the federal is not expected to intervene soon, indicating that the central bank is in a difficult position. It is likely that the Federal Reserve would not move before June, when the effects of customs duties are clear on economic growth and inflation. Federal Reserve’s head, Jerome Powell, resisted management pressure and Trump then became clearer in his call to lower interest rates. Gold prices rose more than $ 3.500 a gram for the first time on Tuesday, with anxiety that Trump should be made Powell. Bokopza said the attack on the independence of the federal will destabilize the markets more and change the risk allowance on US assets, and it will be reached as a turning point and the strategic believes that we are already ‘very close to it’. In a renewed request on the shares of Europe, the strategic analyst expects that the demand of international clients will be renewed on European equities, saying: “The governor was largely focused on US assets that investors forgot that there were also the wonderful and cheapest businesses in Europe, Japan and China.” He added: “There is no winner of protectionism policy and the US administration finds it difficult to prove that the good policy is for the country,” and adds that some of the assets will suffer more than others. He concluded: “European stocks are performing and the height of the euro, despite the low interest rates, means that positive developments occur there.”