Trade War wipes the markets .. and "S&P 500" drops 9.1% in a week

Sales have increased in stock markets, bonds have risen and oil prices have dropped to their lowest level in four years, after Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell indicated that trade war damage would be greater than expected, amid possible effects, including high inflation and slowdowns. Despite the economic risks caused by the trade war launched by President Donald Trump, which has just included a response to China’s recycling, he renewed his support for anticipation and awaiting interest rates. The S&P 500 (S&P 500) is the fiercest decrease in two days since March 2020, in a sharp decline in which it lost about $ 5 trillion from its market value, as the index fell by 6% on Friday. The Nasdaq 100 index has entered the falling market (after deducting more than 20% from its top). The yields of US treasury bonds have dropped by two base to 4.01%. Money markets expect four cuts of interest rates to the Federal Reserve this year, and the possibility of a fifth reduction. The dollar rose 1%. The fear of the recession spread throughout the Wall Street, Dog Ramsey, the investment officer in the “Lithold” group, said in an interview: “The performance of the market emphasizes the fear of the recession. Sometimes the market movements in itself are the final catalyst that drives the recession to verify.” While the latest mail report indicated that the labor market was strong, it was before the strict customs laid down by Trump began to enter through the economy. Commercial tension has also escalated with China’s response to the new US drawings with a series of procedures, which include the imposition of customs duties on all US imports and rare metal export control. Trump said his economic policy “will never change.” Later, the president indicated that he had made a ‘very fertile call’ with Vietnam, which led to the high shares of companies that have significant manufacturing operations in the country, including ‘Nike’ and ‘Lolimmon Athletics’. ‘Byte Dance’ confirmed that it was happening with the United States on plans to continue the work of ‘Tik Talk’ in the United States. The shares of major technology companies, including “invitation” and “Tesla”. The shares of Chinese businesses listed in the United States, such as the group “Ali Baba” and “Baidu”. The most important Bank Share Index has scored its lowest level since August 7, with the shares of “Morgan Stanley” and “Goldman Sachs” dropped by more than 7%. A decline brings the memories of the collapse of Kovid and the velocity of the last collapse in Wall Street, painful memories of trading in the entire market during the collapse caused by Kofid in March 2020. The S&P 500 drop came from the 7% threshold to 15 minutes of suspension on Friday. Many analysts tend to issue pessimistic expectations about US stocks, and they advise investors to buy in light of the intensive sales increased by a historical trade war that increases the ghost of the recession. “The stock market assumes that it can continue for a few chapters, and in fact becomes an increase in unemployment figures, the reluctance of consumers of spending and the freezing point of businesses for their decisions, which not only a minor recession, but also in something dangerous than that” according to Peter Malwk of the company “creative planning”, which holds $ 360 billion. Michael Hartnet, of “Bank of America”, advised investors to sell dangerous assets on outrageous until Trump abandons the customs duties and is on their way to tax lowering, increasing energy supplies, liberalizing organizational restrictions and increasing the debt ceiling. Mark Heville, from UBS Global Wealth Manegement, has reduced its recommendation to US shares to ‘neutrality’. “The correction could be a little stronger, given the uncertainty,” Noriel Robini said at a meeting of economists and business leaders on the banks of the Como in Sernopio, Italy. He added: “Even though it looked like Trump would start negotiating over the next few weeks, and we are getting calm, I think the market will correct a little more and reach the bottom.” Is the time right to take advantage of opportunities? Nevertheless, other opportunities are now in the market. Ed Yardini, of ‘Yardini Research’, who bears his name, said it’s time to buy arrows if they take off. Investor Bill Gross said in a post on the “X” platform. He pointed out that the US financial market is ‘charged with debt’ and that this financial leverage is fading ‘without taking into account the value.’ He added: “I’m still waiting for the fall of this knife loaded with debt until you reach the bottom.” The fastest decline in the US stock market since the peak of the kofid’s pandemic has reduced the evaluation of shares. But if the recession is inevitable due to the global trade war, the definition of licenses becomes relative. Historically, the price leg slides to the gains of the S&B 500 index up to an average of 15.6 times during the drops that precede the economic recession periods, according to the data collected by Sam Stoval, the main investment strategy in the CFRA research business. The average is now 23 times despite last sales, which means there is still a large space for the decline in stock prices. (Only if the economic recession hypothesis is reached). The surrender of individual traders began the first signs of surrender among the optimistic individual traders that appeared according to the data issued by “JP Morgan” and the company “Videliti Investments”. JP Morgan said sales orders by individual investors scored a net sale of $ 1.5 billion on Friday afternoon, which is the highest amount in the first two and a half hours of history. It comes a day after the numbers of the company have shown that individuals have recorded a net purchase in $ 4.7 billion stock, which is the largest daily number in the last decade. In the “Fedeliti” brokerage unit, individual investors traded their favorite stocks and investment funds on the stock exchange on Friday, but the purchase level compared to the sales orders showed a slowdown from the previous day. Did the market approach the setback? David Leipovitz of JB Morgan aset Management says the shares have reached the purchase area in Al -qanan, based on his belief that the United States will continue to avoid the recession that can result from customs duties. Leipovitz, who helps to form priorities for awarding a $ 3.6 trillion money management company, awaits the arrival of the S&P 500 index to the level of 5100 points, which broke it down on Friday afternoon. “The higher the share prices, the higher our interest in it,” says Libyovitz, a global strategic expert in the bank’s multiple asset strategy team. He added: “Reducing the investment weight of stocks in a year has not included a recession that does not achieve a good result of the return perspective most of the time.” Trump’s customs duties cost Wall Street confused due to Trump’s efforts to manufacture to the United States, which will be very expensive and take years, if not contracts to achieve it. Economists generally expect the customs duties to increase and delay inflation, which holds the Federal Reserve in the guard and anticipation situation. But the controversy over the interest rate path is escalating after the announcement of customs duties. Although Morgan Stanley does not expect any interest cuts this year, a decrease in one reduction in the interest in its previous expectations, which indicates that the risk of inflation is at risk, expects global wealth management in UPS this year more financial facilitation. “The risks that threaten growth are the risk of high inflation based on the current US tariff policy,” said Anthony Sagelbine of Ameiprise. He added: “As a result, we believe that the Federal Reserve may have to move earlier and not later lower the interest rate if it expects a decline in the job market based on the current financial policy.” The markets expect a possibility of about 50% to lower interest rates by a quarter percentage point at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in May. Some traders Wedding on an emergency rate of interest rates before the May 7-7 meeting, with a significant increase in the open centers on April futures for the Federal Reserve interest rates. ‘While the investor hopes that the Federal Reserve of Rescue Moves, it is unclear how some possible discounts in interest rates this year can compensate for the economic damage that these definitions are likely to cause.