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Expect Cincinnati Under trend to continue

 

The Cincinnati Reds have played the most games Under the total in MLB this season, and there is not much reason to think things will change Saturday versus the Chicago Cubs.

The Reds start Luis Castillo, who has pitched like a Cy Young candidate this season. He is 7-2 with a 2.56 ERA and has allowed more than two earned runs in just three of his 16 starts. Jose Quintana, who opposes him for the Cubs, is 4-7 with a 4.50 ERA, but other than a few outlier starts has been pretty consistent. He has given up more than three earned runs in three of his past 14 starts and has a fielding independent number that is lower than his ERA and benefits from pitching to a Reds team that is scoring the third-fewest runs per game in June (3.7).

The Reds have played 64.5 percent of their games Under in 2019 thanks to great pitching and suspect hitting. This combo should lead to a low-scoring game and a chance to make some money.

The play: Cubs-Reds, Under 9¹/₂ runs.


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