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2019 Farmers Insurance Open odds: Surprising picks from proven model that nailed four golf majors

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The 2019 Farmers Insurance Open begins on Thursday and one of golf’s marquee tournaments will attract dozens of golf’s biggest stars to Torrey Pines Golf Course in beautiful San Diego. It’s an event that Tiger Woods has won a staggering seven times and the 43-year-old will begin his 2019 PGA Tour season on the familiar grounds this week as one of the favorites at 14-1 in the latest 2019 Farmers Insurance Open odds. Woods is tied for third in the odds with defending champion Jason Day and Justin Rose, while Jon Rahm is the favorite at 10-1 and Rory McIlroy comes in just behind him at 12-1. However, this hasn’t always been a tournament that’s been kind to the favorites, so before you make your 2019 Farmers Insurance Open picks, be sure to check out the predictions from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s prediction model, which was built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed four of the past eight majors entering the weekend and called Tiger Woods’ deep run in the PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot. The model has also been spot-on early in the 2018-19 PGA Tour season. It was all over Rahm (12-1) at the 2018 Hero World Challenge, projecting him as a top contender from the start. It also correctly predicted Brooks Koepka’s (9-1) victory at the 2018 CJ Cup earlier this season. Anyone who has followed the model is up big.

Now that the field for the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Rory McIlroy, a four-time major champion and one of the Vegas favorites, barely cracks the top five.

Thus far in the 2018-19 PGA Tour season, McIlroy finished T54 at the World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions and then T4 earlier this month at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Although he has 14 career PGA Tour victories, he has only finished on top of the leaderboard once since 2017, which was at the 2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Also, McIlroy enters this week’s tournament ranked outside the top 150 on the PGA Tour in scoring average (72.284) and birdie average (3.88). He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in this loaded field than the 14-1 premium he’s commanding.

One of the surprises the SportsLine Projection Model predicts to finish near the top of the leaderboard: 2018 Masters champion Patrick Reed at 40-1.

Reed already has three PGA Tour-recognized events under his belt for the 2018-19 season and he’s finished inside the top 25 each time. And the last time we saw him, he was taking apart Wai’alae Country Club to shoot 65 on Sunday at the Sony Open to move inside the top 15. The 28-year-old doesn’t have a ton of experience at Torrey Pines, as he’s only played the Farmers Insurance Open three times. However, he did make the cut all three times (though he was forced to withdraw after the third round in 2016) and finished in a tie for 23rd last season.

Reed does have some of the qualities that tend to play well on the North and South Courses. He has the necessary distance to survive long par 4s like the 12th on the South Course and he’s tremendous around the greens, where he was second on tour last season in strokes-gained for the category. At 40-1, it’s hard to find a better value in the field than Reed this week.

Also, the model says three additional golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer make a strong run at the title. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open? And where will Tiger Woods finish? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full Farmers Insurance Open projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the winners of four golf majors, and find out. 

Jon Rahm 10-1
Tiger Woods 14-1
Rory McIlroy 14-1
Jason Day 14-1
Justin Rose 14-1
Tony Finau 18-1
Xander Schauffele 18-1
Marc Leishman 20-1
Patrick Cantlay 22-1
Rickie Fowler 25-1
Gary Woodland 28-1
Jordan Spieth 28-1
Cameron Champ 33-1
Charles Howell III 33-1
Alex Noren 40-1
Patrick Reed 40-1
Brandt Snedeker 40-1
Hideki Matsuyama 40-1



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